Sheikh Hasina may have come back to power with a resounding victory as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh for an unprecedented fifth term, but the road ahead will not be easy. She will be under tremendous and constant pressure not only domestically to perform and take the country to newer heights of economic growth, but she will also have to fight a lot of external pressure, especially from countries like the United States that will keep badgering her with the human rights sticks if Washington’s demands are not met. This will induce Hasina to cosy up with India if she has to face the behemoth.
By winning the January 7 elections, Hasina proved that she can weather any kind of threat, be it domestic or external. However, going forward, and as the world undergoes a geopolitical churn, it will not be easy to face the challenges thrown at her by the US as well as the European Union (EU). The US has been provoking Bangladesh much before the elections took place, hinting at the fact that the elections will not be held in a transparent manner, a rhetoric the US has been using to ratchet up support against Hasina.
The election season in Bangladesh this time was fraught with massive violence unleashed by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), in collaboration with the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami, or Jamaat. Despite tensions and violence that had gripped Bangladesh for the past one year, the ruling Awami League was able to secure 223 seats out of 300 parliamentary seats. The voting was preceded by innumerable arson, call of boycott, rioting and vandalism. Even after the final results came in, the BNP, led by former PM Khaleda Zia, refused to accept the outcome as they called it to be one-sided — even though it was the BNP that had refused to participate in the polls.
BNP and its allies boycotted the elections, questioning the ruling Awami League’s credibility. Therefore, while the voter turnout this time was at a low of 40 per cent, the Awami League had a free run with literally no rivals to challenge them. Hasina, 76, daughter of Bangladesh’s founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has said the elections were held in “free, fair and neutral” manner and called her arch rival Zia’s party a “terrorist organisation”.
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Crackdown And Criticism
In the days leading up to the polls, the BNP was subjected to mass-level arrests, and several of their leaders, including the senior ones, were kept imprisoned for several hours. So far, nine BNP leaders have reportedly died. After the Election Commission of Bangladesh announced the expected results, Hasina claimed her win as the “victory of the people”. She even claimed that the BNP’s absence is not a threat to democracy while she continues to refuse allegations of establishing autocracy in Bangladesh.
But this is exactly where the western countries will continue to criticise her. The US State Department said: “The United States remains concerned by the arrests of thousands of political opposition members and by reports of irregularities on elections day. The United States shares the view with other observers that these elections were not free or fair and we regret that not all parties participated.”
However, the US also made it clear that if Bangladesh does become an indirect ally by wholeheartedly embracing the Indo-Pacific strategic framework then it will not haul up Dhaka for human rights violation. The US now wants to sell defence items to Bangladesh and not allow Dhaka to cosy up with Beijing. It needs to be noted here that Bangladesh is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
In order to sell Boeing aircraft and high-tech weaponry, the US also wants Bangladesh to sign defence agreements such as GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement) and ACSA (Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement). Bangladesh has not expressed its interest yet to purchase weapons from the US due to their steep price. Bangladesh has lined up several deals with European countries. Dhaka plans to buy Airbus planes but the US is opposed to it. Bangladesh had signed an MoU with the UK to buy 10 aircraft from Airbus.
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New Delhi’s Support Crucial
Hasina would, therefore, need its neighbour India to steer this stiff competition that the western countries plan to play out in Bangladesh as its economy continues to grow at a rapid pace with a booming garments exports industry. New Delhi has been clandestinely helping Hasina get an image makeover, thereby presenting her one of South Asia’s credible leaders.
This is the reason why India made sure that Hasina is invited for the G20 Leaders’ Summit, which was held in New Delhi in September last year. Just a couple of months before the January elections, India announced connectivity plans for Bangladesh, which remains crucial for the development of India’s Northeast.
In November 2023, Modi and Hasina virtual launched three projects, including the historic restarting of the rail connection between Bangladesh and Tripura in the Northeast. Addressing the event, Modi said then India is “proud to be the biggest development partner” of Bangladesh.
In 2015, both sides signed the historic Land Boundary Agreement that strengthened the ties forever.
“India is a great friend of Bangladesh. They have supported us in 1971 and also in 1975. They gave shelter to me and my sister and my other family members … We consider India as our next-door neighbour. We had many problems, but we resolved it bilaterally. So, I really appreciate that we have a wonderful relationship with India,” Hasina had said on the voting day.
Going forward, Bangladesh would need the help of India also to effectively get itself integrated in the Indo-Pacific framework in which Dhaka has so far shown considerable reluctance. Bangladesh will also face pressure from the US in terms of lessening its dependence on China. However, it may not be easy for Dhaka to wean away from Beijing as the former has to go for massive infrastructure development if it wants to sustain the current rate of economic growth.
When it comes to America, Dhaka is well aware of the fact that the US has still not forgotten the embarrassment it faced during the 1971 Liberation War when Washington had sided with Pakistan. The US was even ready to attack Bangladesh, then East Pakistan, as it deployed US aircraft carrier 'Enterprise', which was despatched to the Indian Ocean in support of Pakistan.
Hasina, who has seen her entire family get eliminated, except for her younger sister, will be taking oath as the Prime Minister for the fifth time Thursday. She has already set up a new cabinet, dropping all her close aides of the past who helped her win the elections. This is a major signal that Hasina has already come under pressure. How she will continue in the coming five years remains to be seen.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.]
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