India-Bhutan-China: The grand weeklong visit of the King of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuk, to India was expected to soothe the tensed nerves of New Delhi. However, voices inside the country’s security apparatus are still sounding as concerned as ever over Thimphu’s ongoing border agreement talks with Beijing, which is believed to be on its last legs, even as ambiguity remains on what both countries will decide when it comes to the tri-junction Doklam area in which India is also involved. India and Bhutan have had a special relationship for decades and they enjoy strong and robust ties devoid of any kind of trust deficit that New Delhi has with most of its neighbours. No matter which government has been in power in New Delhi, India and Bhutan have maintained and sustained the robustness of the relationship despite continuous pressure from China and its innumerable attempts to throw a spanner in the works.
However, under Xi Jinping’s China, New Delhi is fearing the worst and that is losing decades-old friend Thimphu to Beijing over the burning issue of border settlement, in which New Delhi too has stake, albeit a minor one but strategically hugely important. Of late, China has been facing some major backlash in South Asia be it from Sri Lanka or from Pakistan. Chinese money that entered Sri Lanka through the Belt and Road Initiative was seen as one of the reasons why that country witnessed a meltdown of sorts and the ousting of an elected regime that was China-friendly. In Pakistan, Chinese workers have been victims of terrorist attacks and debt issues while Bangladesh has threatened to walk out of many infrastructure projects under the BRI.
Hence, it is imperative now for the Chinese government to settle the border issue with Bhutan. If it becomes successful in doing that then India will be the only country with which it will have an unsettled border, making it far more difficult for New Delhi to focus on other important issues but the Himalayan border, which has been bleeding India since April-May 2020. This will be the fourth winter when Indian soldiers will be guarding the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the biting cold as troops on both sides of the de facto border remain deployed there with no signs of disengagement or de-escalation even as status quo ante looks far away now.
India and Bhutan signed a ‘Treaty of Friendship’ in 1949, which was updated in 2007 that gave greater autonomy to Thimphu in matters related to foreign policy and national security. However, India and Bhutan do have a basic understanding between themselves. Highly placed sources confirmed that Thimphu has agreed to normalising ties with China only on the condition that New Delhi’s security interests will not be harmed, which includes the Doklam Plateau or tri-junction area. However, the sources also said nothing has been explicitly stated as the Chinese have kept them in the dark and there is still some degree of ambiguity as to whether or not the trijunction area, which witnessed a major flare-up between India and China in 2017 and it continues to remain a key flashpoint as Beijing lay claims on the entire area. During the Doklam standoff, Bhutan had said the status quo should be respected. But India is concerned whether, under pressure from China, Bhutan will be truly able to take a stand and while the matter came up during the King’s visit, nothing was made clear because Beijing can change its plan at the eleventh hour.
Compromising Doklam would mean making India’s “Chicken Neck” (Siliguri Corridor), which connects mainland India with that of its northeast, permanently vulnerable to the Chinese. Hence, Delhi is “extremely concerned” that in the garb of normalising ties with Bhutan, China may put pressure on that country to “compromise” on the understanding reached between them concerning Doklam. But a certain section of the Indian security architecture also believe that Bhutan may not allow to China to discuss Doklam at all.
Bhutan and China also signed a ‘three-step roadmap’ in 2021 even as both sides have often been at loggerheads over certain areas that both lay their claims on. In 2020, during peak Covid time, China suddenly claimed the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Bhutan. Many at that time said China did it to “punish” Bhutan for the stand it took during the 73-day Doklam standoff.
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Connectivity — India’s Sole Strong Point
During the visit of the Bhutanese King, who is in Mumbai Thursday, New Delhi and Thimphu agreed on a number of key cross-border connectivity projects, which is expected to give jitters to the Chinese Communist Party.
During a meeting between the King of Bhutan and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, both sides decided to undertake surveys for a cross-border rail link connecting Kokrajhar in Assam to Gelephu in Bhutan. The rail link is part of the Himalayan Kingdom’s ambitious Special Economic Zone (SEZ) project that is coming up in Sarpang town, along the 267-km border that the country shares with Assam. There are talks of developing the domestic airport at Gelephu to an international one.
In an effort to seek investments for his dream SEZ projects, the King visited Assam where he met business tycoons like Gautam Adani to put in investments there even as Bbutan wants to turn the area into a world-class city.
Both countries also decided to designate Darranga (Assam)/Samdrup Jongkhar (Bhutan) as immigration checkpost between Bhutan and India to facilitate the entry and exit of third country nationals by land route for enhancing connectivity, and promoting tourism.
A new rail linkage will be created between Haldibari (West Bengal) - Chilahati (Bangladesh) rail route as an additional trade route for Bhutan’s trade with Bangladesh. This is going to be a significant strategic move connecting India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Along with this, there are a number of hydroelectric projects that both sides are planning to develop.
However, to make all these initiatives successful, India has to act fast and cannot allow these projects to get entangled into the bureaucratic red-tape. With 2024 general elections knocking on the doors, these projects may not see any progress for the next one year at least. But this is the only strong point for India if it has to keep Bhutan contended.
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Bhutan-China Border Negotiations Have Gathered Speed
New Delhi has also asked Bhutan to slow down the talks with Beijing. But on the contrary, the boundary settlement talks between Bhutan and China have been galloping post Covid. In October, Bhutan and China completed 25 rounds of border talks for which Bhutan’s former foreign minister Tandi Dorji had visited that country, becoming the first ever foreign minister of the Himalayan Kingdom to undertake such a visit. Interestingly, during the talks the Chinese side was represented by their now Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong, who was China’s last Ambassador to India.
"The discussions were held in a warm and friendly atmosphere in keeping with the ties of friendship and cooperation between Bhutan and China. The two sides also exchanged views on enhancing bilateral relations and matters of mutual interest,” said the joint statement issued after the two-day talks.
Earlier this year, Ma Jia, Chargé d’Affaires at the Embassy of China in India, said during a special session on Bhutan that Beijing “supports Bhutan in pursuing a development path that suits its own national conditions, and is willing to strengthen friendly cooperation with Bhutan in various fields and continue to assist Bhutan's economic and social development … The relationship between the two countries will become much closer and more fruitful in the coming year.”
If public commentary from China is to be considered, Beijing thinks India is “interfering” in the border negotiations. China blames India for not being able to have diplomatic ties with Bhutan. “India controls Bhutan's foreign policy through various means. On the one hand, India limits Bhutan's establishment of diplomatic relations with other countries. Although India has repeatedly stated that Bhutan is an independent sovereign country, it remains very vigilant about Bhutan's development of foreign relations and even opposes Bhutan's contacts with other countries,” China’s Global Times said in one of its Opinion pieces.
Bhutan is currently under an interim government as the country is headed for general election, which is expected to take place on January 9, 2024. Therefore, the border talks will get further prolonged and may not be concluded any time soon giving India the much-needed breather as New Delhi also gears up for elections next year. But India cannot let its guards down and keep an eye on the developments as it continues to remain engaged with China at the Ladakh border.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]
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