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Grant Duncan

Grant Duncan

The Conversation

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NZ will have a caretaker government for weeks. What that means and how it works

NZ will have a caretaker government for weeks. What that means and how it works

The final election result won’t be known for three weeks and coalition negotiations will take even longer. But it’s not correct to say...

yesterday 10

The Conversation

Grant Duncan

A fractious campaign heralds a cliffhanger election: what to watch as NZ votes

A fractious campaign heralds a cliffhanger election: what to watch as NZ votes

With so many variables in play, and polls pointing to a very tight result, there may be no obvious winner on the night – and a long wait for a new...

friday 10

The Conversation

Grant Duncan

Ruling out Opportunity only harms Luxon’s election chances, right? It’s not that simple

National’s repeated refusal to work with potential king-making party Opportunity might appear self-sabotaging – but there’s a hidden logic at play.

23.10.2026 6

The Conversation

Grant Duncan

NZ’s next government could be a four‑party coalition. Get used to the new normal

As National and Labour slide in the polls to the benefit of smaller parties, politicians, political media and voters will need to adapt to new ways of...

07.10.2026 60

The Conversation

Grant Duncan

Luxon survives. But why do National and Labour both struggle with effective leadership?

Both major parties have had a revolving door of leaders. What is it about modern politics that makes the job so challenging – and are others doing...

12.08.2026 40

The Conversation

Grant Duncan

Luxon’s leadership on the line – again. Neither National nor Labour stand to benefit

Whatever the outcome at tomorrow’s caucus meeting, Christopher Luxon has been found wanting as a political leader. But so has Labour’s Chris Hipkins.

11.08.2026 40

The Conversation

Grant Duncan

As NZ’s Chris Hipkins pursues power, what can he learn from Keir Starmer’s downfall?

The UK leader’s resignation speaks to the challenges facing centre-left parties as they struggle to hold together increasingly diverse voters.

26.06.2026 50

The Conversation

Grant Duncan

This election year budget is a political tightrope walk for Willis and National

National hasn’t achieved two of its three big fiscal policy promises from the previous election. Thursday’s budget will be a hard sell.

26.05.2026 60

The Conversation

Grant Duncan

Second COVID inquiry: why being politically prepared for the next pandemic is crucial

The report will inevitably be politicised. But it serves a useful function by airing grievances that will reemerge during any future public-health...

10.03.2026 60

The Conversation

Grant Duncan

Polls are snapshots, not predictions: how to read them critically this election year

Voters can expect a lot of political polling in the lead-up to NZ’s general election in November. It’s important to know what the numbers can and...

03.02.2026 50

The Conversation

Grant Duncan

Third time lucky for a 4-year parliamentary term? A lack of checks and balances is still the problem

A single, overarching, publicly-approved written constitution could allay fears of giving governments longer terms. But NZ tends to shy away from such...

03.09.2025 60

The Conversation

Grant Duncan