Iran’s regime is on the ropes. The recent wave of protests, the government’s bloody crackdown, and the US threat of direct intervention all mark a profound turning point in its modern history.

The Islamic Republic’s current trajectory is unsustainable — without a course correction, a gradual internal disintegration of the economy and the increasing reliance on force to suppress dissent will doom the government to a painful death, albeit a slow one.

For many, this has increased the possibility of regime change. At least some protesters seem to be supportive of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the deposed Shah of Iran, who has openly auditioned for a leading role if the current government falls.

But the events of the last two weeks also illustrate the obstacles to such a transformation: an impassioned but disorganized opposition, a brutal state willing to kill to maintain its position, a unified elite who will band together to save their regime rather than see it overthrown, and an international community hamstrung by a lack of options and resources. If change comes to Iran, it will likely come from within the system, as unsavory a prospect as that might seem.

Iran’s biggest obstacle is at the top

History is replete with nondemocratic governments course-correcting to save themselves from destruction. Iran’s leadership are well aware of their predicament, and there is likely a quiet consensus that the country must change its domestic and foreign policy to avoid a catastrophic slide into chaos and slow collapse.

There is one thing standing in their way: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Now 86 years old, Khamenei has held his post for more than three decades. It has not been a static role; rather, Khamenei has used his post to........

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