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The redistricting battle that could decide the 2026 elections, explained

3 1
10.11.2025
A “Vote Yes on Prop 50” door hanger is displayed on October 22, 2025, in Los Angeles, as volunteers canvassed the neighborhood ahead of the November 4 election. | Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Key takeaways

  • An unprecedented national race to gerrymander (politically redraw) congressional districts in red and blue states is underway.
  • Texas Republicans kicked it off this summer, after President Donald Trump’s insistence. California voters approved a new map last week — the first major response by Democrats to counter GOP gains.
  • More Republican states have passed — and are considering — new maps. Now Democrats are seeing where they counter those gains too.

In addition to lifting Democrats’ spirits, last week’s elections, in which the party beat expectations and regained much of the support among young and nonwhite voters that it had lost in 2024, changed the calculus for what may become one of the defining fights of the second Trump presidency: the so-called redistricting war.

What is this war about? It’s a fight over determining whether, when, and how state lawmakers can redraw the districts that determine which party wins a seat in the House of Representatives — and thus influence the overall balance of power in the lower house of Congress.

The stakes are high. Republicans face headwinds in holding onto control of the House next year, and reanimated Democratic voters could deliver a 2018-style wave by winning the national popular vote. But Republican redraws could foil that, and with that, spoil the chance that Democrats finally get a check on Trump’s power.

How is redistricting supposed to work?

Traditionally, congressional maps are set by states every 10 years, after the US Census finishes its count of the American population. Every decade, therefore, district maps, designed by either state legislatures or independent commissions, are supposed to be updated to:

  • Better represent changing demographics and minority groups. Representatives should represent similar numbers of voters, for the sake of representative democracy.
  • Keep like voters in the same district as like voters. Splintering voters off into far-flung districts diminishes the power of minority groups and hurts fair representation.
  • Ensure voters get a chance to vote for the party they want. Competitive seats give voters that chance to make a real choice in who they........

    © Vox