Everyone you know is about to start putting their money where their mouth is.

Prediction markets are booming. Think of them as like a stock market, but instead of buying shares in companies, you buy shares in the outcomes of real-world events — and you can bet on almost anything. The top platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, allow you to stake money on everything from the outcomes of elections and wars to the weather in your city tomorrow to who will win the Grammy for Album of the Year. There’s no bookie setting the odds — instead, the prices are set based on how other people have bet.

When the bet is settled — maybe PTA gets that Oscar win — you get paid.

The sector just had its strongest period yet, pulling in nearly $10 billion combined in bets on Kalshi and Polymarket last month. But at a time where sports betting scandals are on the rise, prediction markets are facing their own ethical reckoning. Just because we can bet on anything — even politics — does it mean we should?

To help us navigate that question, Vox’s Noel King spoke with John Herrman, a tech columnist at New York Magazine. He explained why these markets feel so unsettling and how they might open up new opportunities for political corruption, especially under the Trump administration (both Kalshi and Polymarket, notably, have enlisted Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser).

Below is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s........

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