The world is trying to kill you, this much is true.

Planes are crashing on a near weekly basis. “Forever chemicals” and microplastics are in our water, embedded in our beauty products and clothing, and even burrowed in our brains. Your kitchen utensils might be poisoning you and perhaps your food is, too. Mysterious diseases — and not-so-mysterious diseases — seem to be forever threatening another global pandemic. Alarming news coverage of violent crime has people on edge, concerned for their safety.

With all these anxieties coursing through modern life, you might suspect the world is a fundamentally menacing place. In 2023, 40 percent of Americans said they felt unsafe walking home alone at night, the highest rate since 1993, according to a Gallup poll. Ongoing research suggests Gen Z sees more risk around them than other generations.

You would, however, be wrong to assume that danger is everywhere. Violent crime has been down, air travel is as safe as it’s ever been, mortality from infectious disease largely fell throughout the 20th and 21st centuries (even the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic was blunted by the swift development of effective vaccines). While much more can be done to ensure the safety and well-being of people, animals, and the earth, Americans live longer, safer, wealthier lives than centuries past.

Nothing is without risk, but fixating on certain perils may be misplaced, experts say. Risk and danger are non-negotiables in the great project of human existence. The line between sufficient self-preservation and excessive vigilance is thin and our own miscalculations on what actually constitutes a risk may only muddy the waters. But a life without risk is one without joys and excitements.

Our wonky (mis)calculations about risk

Generations ago, risks were largely evaluated by the scientific and cultural knowledge of the day. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, some of the greatest risks came from “natural” causes: fires that razed homes and cities, infectious diseases, and unpredictable weather conditions. Absent any kind of data or expert guidance, people largely relied on their own experience — and the experiences of others — to weigh risk. If your cousin embarked on a transcontinental ocean voyage only never to return, your perception of such a trip’s risk would have been swayed.

But as technology advanced, around 150 years ago, the risks also proliferated. New transportation, like railroads, held hazards for both passengers and workers. Mines, factories, and other industrial-era workplaces were hotbeds of danger. In order to assess the risks of industrial labor, states began collecting data about accidents and deaths.

“It was collected to make an argument about you should pay attention to this kind of risk, that the government should step in and try to manage the risk,” says Arwen Mohun, a history professor at the University of Delaware and author of Risk: Negotiating Safety in American Society. “The first widely collected data is about public health and about workplace accidents, and those were both big political issues. The numbers were meant to shift people’s perceptions of risk.”

People use both numbers and stories to build a narrative around what is safe and what isn’t.

These days, especially as mass media makes it possible to stay informed about all the bad and scary happenings the world over, data and statistics are in no short supply, documenting everything from the number of flu infections in a given year to the likelihood of winning the lottery. But the........

© Vox