The prospects for Republicans to maintain control of Congress this fall are grim. Since 1950, the average midterm election loss for the incumbent President’s political party in the U.S. House was 25 seats.  

It may be worse for Republicans in this midterm election. One GOP House member anonymously told Politico that Republicans could suffer a bloodbath and “lose 60 to 70 seats.”

Why the pessimism? The fate of the GOP directly correlates with the political standing of President Donald Trump. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows him with only a 36% approval rating, the lowest of his second term. His approval on economic issues was 29%, while 35% approved of the military strikes against Iran. Since the war began, gas prices have risen by $1 per gallon, which has contributed to his unpopularity.

The poll indicated that 40% of Republicans believed the economy was either “somewhat” or “very” “weak,” and 34% of the GOP respondents disapproved of the President’s “handling of the cost of living.”

The falling poll numbers are especially dramatic among Hispanic voters, who were critical to President Trump's 2024 victory. According to The Economist, Trump’s support among Hispanic voters has dropped from 48% in 2024 to 22% today.

Another key voting bloc that propelled Trump to victory in 2024 was young men under 30. Unfortunately for Republicans, the President’s support among that group has dropped by 20%.  CNN Data Analyst Harry Enten said, “Trump won in 2024 because of men. They are abandoning him right now.”

Along with the economy, the conflict in Iran is a factor in the President’s falling poll numbers. It is a controversial issue among many Republican elected officials and conservative broadcasters.

For example, popular podcaster and former television personality Megyn Kelly said that Operation Epic Fury “is not what Trump ran on. It is…a betrayal of his campaign promises, what he sold himself as, and of his…base.”

Cumulatively, these divisions and dreadful poll numbers are a major concern, as midterm elections are won by motivating a political party's “base” to vote. Turnout is lower than in presidential elections, so encouraging “chronic” voters to participate in the midterms is the key to victory.

Currently, momentum is with the Democrats. This week, U.S. Congressman Sam Graves (R-MO) added his name to the list of Republicans who are retiring and not running for reelection this fall. The count stands at 36 Republicans retiring compared to only 21 Democrats. Losing so many incumbents creates additional challenges for Republicans, who have only a 217-214 edge in the House of Representatives.

Democrats have also been winning special elections. Since the President’s second term began last January, Democrats have flipped 30 legislative seats, while Republicans have flipped zero.

Energized Democrats were on display on Saturday at 3,100 “No Kings” protests, scheduled in all 50 states. Organizers predicted that 9 million protesters would participate, larger than the previous “No Kings” rallies in October (7 million) and June (5 million).  

Conversely, among Republicans, the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) meeting, which concluded on Saturday in Texas, drew a smaller crowd than usual. Among attendees, support for President Trump remained strong, but there was a split on the military operation in Iran.

If the conflict continues for an extended period and ground troops are introduced, the split between the interventionist and isolationist wings in the GOP will exacerbate. These concerns were echoed by U.S. Congressman Eli Crane (R-AZ), a former Navy SEAL, who served five wartime deployments. He summarized the thoughts of many Republicans by expressing hopes “this doesn’t turn into a boots-on-the-ground situation.” He continued, “My biggest concern this whole time is that this would turn into another long Middle Eastern war.” After the long, deadly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, his concern is legitimate.

Fortunately, President Trump understands the folly of the previous wars. He also knows that voters will be motivated by economic issues in the midterm election.

In his first term, Trump did not become entangled in any new wars. His military actions were limited in scope and duration, and he began the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Unfortunately, President Joe Biden completely mishandled the Afghanistan withdrawal, and 13 American military heroes were tragically killed.

In his second term, President Trump has continued with quick and successful military operations, such as the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, bringing the dictator to America to face justice for his crimes.

Operation Epic Fury in Iran has been different, as it enters its second month. Nonetheless, the President understands the idiocy of “nation building” and the horrific experiences of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He will not authorize such a war in Iran.

The United States and Israeli air campaigns have destroyed the Iranian air force and navy and degraded their ability to attack their neighbors. While Iran still has the capability of launching drones and missiles, their stockpile of munitions has dwindled significantly.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio predicted the conflict would end within “weeks, not months.” In preparation for talks between American and Iranian officials, a meeting was held on Sunday in Islamabad, Pakistan, with the foreign ministers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, “aimed at bringing an end to the war.”

While thousands of U.S. troops are headed to the region, the President may not authorize their use in a ground operation. Instead, he is using the potential of ground troops to extract the best possible deal from the Iranians.

Once this military operation is concluded, the economy will improve, and the President will focus on domestic issues that are critical to voters. There is time for a recovery, so Republicans need to remain united.

GOP disunity helps Democrats, who fight for criminals, illegal immigrants, and trans rights, while supporting lawless cities and open borders.

Republicans will unite if they understand the radical Democrat agenda and the urgent need to prevent them from taking power again.

Jeff Crouere is a native New Orleanian and his award-winning program, “Ringside Politics,” airs Saturdays from 1-2 p.m. CT nationally on Real America's Voice TV Network & AmericasVoice.News and weekdays from 7-9 a.m. & 6-7 p.m. CT on WGSO 990-AM & Wgso.com. He is the President and General Manager of WGSO Radio, a political columnist, the author of America's Last Chance, and provides regular commentaries on the Jeff Crouere YouTube channel and at Crouere.net. For more information, email him at jcrouere@gmail.com.

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