When White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair decided to push mid-decade congressional redistricting, Republicans had reason to be nervous. Redistricting battles are messy, procedurally arcane and easy to lose in the court of public opinion even when you win in a court of law. But Blair saw something others missed: Democrats had already boxed themselves in with maximum partisan redistricting and constitutional restrictions in some states that would prohibit radical gerrymandering.

The Virginia Supreme Court's rejection of the Democrats' redistricting effort last week is more than a procedural footnote. It is a consequential ruling that has reshuffled the electoral math heading into the midterms in ways that could meaningfully blunt what remains an uphill environment for House Republicans. According to the Cook Political Report, the breakdown now stands at 209 seats leaning Republican, 209 leaning Democrat and 18 true toss-ups. That is a tighter picture than Democrats had been banking on. Blair's redistricting gambit paid off, thanks in no small part to the Democrats' rushed response.

The structural headwinds facing House Republicans have not disappeared. History is........

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