Henry Kissinger wrote that “a bluff taken seriously is more useful than a serious threat interpreted as a bluff.” It is well past time to call Vladimir Putin’s bluff. 

President Donald Trump’s response to the highly-anticipated release of the Russia-Ukraine peace proposal, led by the U.K., France, Germany, and Ukraine, indicates how wide the gap between the two warring parties really is. Land concessions in Ukrainian-held territories, control of the Donbas region, security assurances, and autonomy over military capacity still seem to plague negotiations.

The standstill should come as no surprise. The Russian President has refused to publicly share what he could accept or reject in the U.S.’s 28-point peace plan—which directly drew from Russia’s own documents—after a five-hour negotiating session with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Many foreign government officials view the U.S. plan as heavily favoring Russia and something that the Ukrainians or Europeans would never accept. 

Therein lies the trouble. Putin wants even more than the generous starting point established by the Trump Administration. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has his priorities but is willing to make concessions through constructive negotiations—although a seat at the table would be a good start.

While Trump seems to believe that Russia is “much stronger” than Ukraine, the truth is that most of the Russian landmass is uninhabitable, their economy is disintegrating, and their military prowess is inferior to that of Ukraine with the backing of its allies.

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Trump’s perception of Russia as a geographical Goliath is skewed. Excluding Russia, Europe takes up about 4 million square miles. Meanwhile, Russia spans over 6.5 million square miles, but more than 4 million of those are uninhabitable due to permafrost. Which means the livable portion of the country is 40% smaller.

And Russia’s economic might is also often overestimated. The Russian economy, at its peak in 2013, has only ever accounted for a meager 15% of the European Union's GDP—$2.3 trillion versus $15.4 trillion. The Russian economy is not even a top 10 economy and is highly dependent on revenues from oil, gas, and other raw materials.

Russia holds fewer cards than Trump believes. And so far, Trump-led discussions have not put the Ukrainians, Europeans, or Americans in a strong negotiating position. For instance,

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