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Bombs do not have to fall on a country to ruin it. Since February 2026, US and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by an Israeli assault on Lebanon and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have set off a chain of damage that reaches from the Persian Gulf to the rice fields of Bengal and the tea gardens of Sri Lanka. The latest report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Military Escalation in the Middle East: Human Development Impacts Across Asia and the Pacific, puts hard numbers on what distant war does to ordinary people who have no part in fighting it.

The numbers are clear. Across Asia and the Pacific, economic output losses could range between $97 billion and $299 billion – between 0.3% and 0.8% of the region’s total GDP. Around 8.8 million people in 14 countries studied face the risk of sliding into poverty. And South Asia, already home to some of the world’s poorest people, stands out as the most exposed subregion of all.

The pipes through which damage flows

Three circuits carry the crisis from the Gulf to Asian households, as shown by UNDP. The first is energy. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. More than 80% of the crude oil and liquefied natural gas that passes through it is headed for Asian markets. When the strait was blockaded, prices spiked and supply lines buckled. Of the 36 countries the UNDP assessed, 33 reported high vulnerability to oil-price shocks.

India is an extreme case. It imports over 90% of its oil needs. More than 40% of its crude and 90% of its LPG come from West Asia. The disruption hit households, farms, and factories at the same time.

The second circuit is trade. Twenty-five of 36 countries face significant supply-chain damage. War-risk insurance for ships jumped by more than 1,000%. Rerouting vessels away from the Red Sea and the Gulf extends Asia-Europe shipping voyages from 31 to 41 days. Air-freight rates climbed by up to 70%. India alone has roughly $48 billion in non-oil exports at risk – among them basmati rice, tea, gems, jewellery, and apparel, all heading to markets now harder to reach.

The third circuit is remittances. Tens of millions of South........

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