On Friday, in a signing ceremony in Switzerland, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran will formally end a war that has run for nearly four months. The document promises the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions waivers, and a 60-day window to negotiate the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium. On paper, it is the most consequential de-escalation in the region in a generation.

There is one problem, and his name is Ahmad Vahidi.

Just two weeks before the deal was announced, it was Vahidi, now commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who blew up the negotiations entirely. On June 1, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News declared that Tehran was suspending talks with Washington, ostensibly over Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. That the announcement came through Guard-linked media was, analysts noted, all but a signature: the decision was Vahidi’s. The Institute for the Study of War assessed at the time that Vahidi and a small inner circle calculated a frozen status quo, with neither concessions to the United States nor full-scale war, served their interests better than any agreement. That a deal was reached at all, less than three weeks later, raises the question that should worry every party to it: does the most powerful man in Iran actually intend to keep it?

To understand why that question matters, you have to understand the man who now sits at the apex of the IRGC.

For most of his career, the 67-year-old brigadier general operated in the spaces where the Islamic Republic prefers not to be seen: intelligence, covert external operations, the planning offices behind the Ministry of Defense. A growing number of analysts believe he, more than President Masoud Pezeshkian or even the........

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