Western capitals and influential segments of the international media are now urging Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon without first disarming Hezbollah. They claim recent Israeli operations have weakened the Iranian-funded terrorist group “enough” and that it is time for a “diplomatic resolution” that will restore “normalcy” along the border. Indisputably, this argument reverses cause and effect, treats the symptom as the disease, and ignores the structural reality that has driven this conflict for a generation.

History provides the clearest test. Israel completed a full withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 and was even praised by the United Nations. However, Hezbollah did not disarm, and instead, it rearmed on an industrial scale. Its rocket and missile inventory grew from roughly 12,000 on the eve of the 2006 war to an estimated 150,000 by October 2023.

Over the same period, the group built hundreds of kilometers of tunnels — many multi-level and hardened — for command, storage, and cross-border raids such as ‘Operation Conquer the Galilee’, which they planned to launch right after October 7. With direct Iranian assistance, Hezbollah acquired precision-guided munitions, anti-ship missiles, and advanced drone systems. UN Security Council Resolution 1701, passed after the 2006 war, explicitly required Hezbollah’s disarmament and the Lebanese state’s exclusive military authority south of the Litani River.........

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