The Cost of an Early Ending Against Iran
There are times when, once a road has been taken, it becomes necessary to follow it to the end. The conflict with Iran may have reached such a point. The cost of not seeing it through could very possibly outweigh the danger of continuing until the regime capitulates, collapses, or is so badly damaged that it will take years, if not decades, to build back to its prior capabilities.
During the Twelve-Day War, the US struck once, then declared its mission accomplished hoping for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. The US and Israel demonstrated that Iran was all but powerless to stop an air campaign. The immediate strategic fallout from the war was limited. Due to the abrupt ending, Iran did not use its capabilities to interfere with the global oil market or US partner nations other than Israel.
This war is very different. The US and Israel struck with far greater force while some aspects of the US and Israeli messaging implied that regime change in Iran might be, if not the goal of operations, then at the very least the desired outcome. Iran has also escalated the war against Gulf countries and the global economy to put pressure on the US. The level of escalation and rhetoric has created a new dynamic which raises the strategic cost of an abrupt ending like that of the Twelve-Day War.
By escalating the war, Iran has demonstrated that pro-US neutrality in the Middle East is not an option. This puts countries on notice about the potential cost of defying Iran in the future.........
