When we will know that the property market has bottomed

September 9, 2026 — 5:00am

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Real estate agents are starting to think the property market is picking up. Auction clearance rates have risen for two months in a row, there are a few more buyers attending open homes now and a handful of homes have surprised everyone by selling for more than their reserve price.

But economists and researchers are starting to think the property market is turning down. Forecasts for property price falls are being downgraded further, warnings are being issued that headwinds are becoming more entrenched and chances are rising of at least one more interest rate rise this year.

Confused? You’re not alone.

One thing we know is that nobody can know in advance when the property market downturn will reach the bottom.

But the bottom of the market will be clear to everybody once it has passed.

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Forecasters expect this year’s property price falls to continue into next year and turn around in 2027 or even 2028.

But agents on the ground – by nature an optimistic bunch – point out conditions are not as weak as in June, which........

© The Sydney Morning Herald