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Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment : What Could End Civilization and How to Prevent It

38 0
03.11.2024

Global catastrophic and existential risks pose profound threats to humanity, with the potential to disrupt or even eradicate human civilization. These risks—ranging from nuclear war to severe pandemics—demand urgent attention and action to ensure a secure future for all. With support from the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, USA, this assessment examines the nature, likelihood, and mitigation strategies for six primary threats: artificial intelligence (AI), asteroid and comet impacts, climate change, nuclear war, pandemics, and supervolcanoes.

An Overview of Global Catastrophic Risks

The report categorizes six threats that pose potential global dangers, with each varying in impact likelihood and potential consequences:

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI): The development of advanced AI systems raises concerns about societal destabilization, economic disruptions, and risks of unaligned AI systems leading to disastrous outcomes. While AI may amplify risks associated with nuclear war, pandemics, and climate change, its long-term impact is uncertain, given the lack of empirical evidence and rigorous modeling.
  • Asteroids and Comets: Large asteroids and comets pose a rare but severe threat. While smaller impactors cause regional destruction, larger ones could have global effects, potentially resulting in human extinction. However, the likelihood of a significant impact is low, estimated to occur every ten million years for large impactors.
  • Climate Change: Climate change is already affecting global ecosystems, causing deaths and widespread disruption. As the Earth warms, extreme weather events and ecosystem collapse may escalate, potentially leading to catastrophic impacts on human life. While there is considerable evidence on short-term climate impacts, long-term predictions remain uncertain.
  • Nuclear War: A nuclear conflict could kill millions........

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