Tehran knows it does not need to defeat the United States in a conventional war. It can instead exploit the vulnerabilities of America and its Sunni Gulf allies by opening up new fronts. With shipping in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, Saudi Arabia has been transporting oil via the Red Sea and keeping global energy markets just about under control. But that alternative Red Sea route is now being threatened and the economic consequences are becoming considerably more serious.

Iran’s mullahs are widening their war with the US not only through direct attacks, but through their Shia allies and proxies across the Middle East. Earlier this month, the Iran-backed Houthis seized strategically important territory across Yemen’s Red Sea coast. From there, they can threaten shipping through the Red Sea. At the same time, an attack launched from Iraqi territory has forced Riyadh to shut down its East-West oil pipeline, which provides an alternative route for exporting Saudi crude around the Strait of Hormuz.

This is now the Iranian strategy. It is what the professor of political science Robert Pape calls “asymmetric escalation.” Tehran’s objective need not be an outright American military defeat. It is enough for Washington to realize that it cannot contain the conflict. The choice becomes obvious: withdraw and accept a loss of control, or commit more resources, accept greater risks and pay a steadily higher price. That is how wars that begin with confidence collapse into a never-ending quagmire. It is what happened in Afghanistan, Vietnam and Iraq. And it is what may now be happening in Iran.

The bombs have not forced Tehran to capitulate, nor have they produced a popular uprising

The bombs have not forced Tehran to capitulate, nor have they produced a popular uprising

Since February 28, the US and Israel have inflicted enormous damage on Iran. Its navy has been devastated, its air defenses badly degraded and its ability to project military power beyond its borders has been sharply curtailed. Iran’s economy, meanwhile, has been battered by the war and the naval blockade, with inflation soaring and unemployment rising. But military destruction is one thing, political submission is another. The two should not be confused.

The bombs have not forced Tehran to capitulate, nor have they produced a popular uprising against the Islamic Republic that some in Washington had hoped for. Indeed, Iran has demonstrated a serious capacity to absorb punishment while finding new ways to impose costs on its adversaries. This is the uncomfortable truth confronting Donald Trump: America can win battles while losing control of the war.

Complicating things further is the fact that Iran is hardly alone:........

© The Spectator