Shortly before Prime Minister’s Questions today, Labour dropped a bombshell. Natalie Elphicke, one of the most hawkish Tory MPs on migration, has defected to Sir Keir Starmer’s party. Elphicke, who has sat for Dover and Deal since 2019, said in a statement that she was switching parties because of how much the political landscape had shifted over the past five years. Under the Conservatives, she said, ‘the centre ground has been abandoned and key pledges of the 2019 manifesto have been ditched’. Labour, by contrast, ‘has moved on from Jeremy Corbyn and now, under Keir Starmer, occupies the centre ground of British politics.’

Elphicke attacked the ‘broken promises of Sunak’s government’

Elphicke’s 500-word statement attacked the ‘broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic government’ and spoke at length of the ‘huge rise in homelessness’ in recent years. In a likely sign of her future role within the party, she said: ‘I’m honoured to have been asked to work with Keir and the team to help deliver the homes we need.’ She is expected to stand down at the next election, with Labour retaining Mike Tapp as their existing candidate in her seat. But it was the two references that Elphicke made in her letter to ‘stopping the boats’ that were by far the most eye-catching.

Elphicke has a reputation in parliament as being one of the most hardline critics of the government on small boats. A member of the European Research Group, she has shown little previous sympathy with the Opposition’s policy on this area, even writing a Daily Express article in April 2023 headlined: ‘Don’t trust Labour on immigration, they really want open borders.’ The disbelief within the Labour party is perhaps best summarised by backbencher Florence Eshalomi who shared on Twitter/ X a meme of Jose Mourinho saying ‘I prefer not to speak. If I speak I am in big trouble.’

The calculation for Starmer’s team is that Elphicke’s defection is seen less as one of opportunistic perfidy and more a sign that even Conservatives are comfortable with him in No. 10. It follows a recent trend of current and former Tory MPs, including Dan Poulter, Christian Wakeford, Claire Perry O’Neill and Nick Boles, crossing the floor. If even they trust Labour, the argument goes, why shouldn’t the electorate too?