A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Winston Churchill’s description of Soviet Russia in 1939 could also apply to the independent candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr in the presidential election of 2024. What we can say with certainty about RFK Jr is that, in a year when the American electorate is deeply unhappy about having to choose once again between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Kennedy has the opportunity to win over an enormous number of disgruntled voters.

At first glance RFK appears to outflank Trump along the wackier fringes of US politics

He’s currently polling at up to 15 per cent. That makes him the biggest threat to the Republican-Democratic hold over presidential politics since Ross Perot, who in 1992 won some 19 per cent and came second in two states.

It also seems certain that, in what looks sure to be another very tight election, RFK will be condemned as a great spoiler by the candidate who comes second on 5 November. If Trump wins, the Biden campaign will blame Kennedy for having swung crucial voters away from their man. If Biden is re-elected, Trumpists will say the same.

The riddle for psephologists now is figuring out which scenario is more likely. The concern among Democratic strategists, supported by some polling, is that whereas Trump’s 2020 coalition remains loyal and committed to him, a large number of former Biden supporters are today looking elsewhere. It could be these wandering voters who are telling pollsters they like the 70-year-old RFK: a recent Quinnapac poll found that he performed exceptionally well among young voters.

These voters might express their discontent at the ballot by voting for RFK – or they might equally protest by not voting at all. Either way, in this analysis, Biden suffers. The Democrats remember how, in 2016, Trump narrowly won in part because the Green party’s Jill Stein peeled off a few thousand votes in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. They also recall how in 2000 the Green party’s Ralph Nader’s 1.6 per cent of the vote in Florida enabled George W. Bush to eke out his victory in that bitterly contested election.

Sure enough, RFK’s own family has been busy denouncing his ‘perilous’ candidacy as a........

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