In the race to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, many Whitehall departments, Westminster thinktanks and independent bodies have produced cost estimates of the policy. These range from modest percentages of GDP to eye-watering trillions. Often, however, they rely on overly optimistic assumptions about the price of green technologies, and mask the potentially staggering financial burden on taxpayers. If we are to pursue net zero, transparency on this fact is essential.

In 2019, then-chancellor Philip Hammond warned Theresa May against enshrining net zero in law. Citing estimates from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (Beis), he pegged the total cost at over £1 trillion, equivalent to £50-70 billion annually over 30 years. In a moment of prescience, Hammond highlighted risks like higher bills for heat pumps and home insulation, and said it could make making energy-intensive industries uncompetitive.

In 2020, the National Electricity System Operator (now the National Energy System Operator, or Neso) said reaching net zero could cost around £3 trillion. This figure, covering everything from renewables to grid upgrades, implied gross cash outlays of £5-6 trillion, assuming annual spending of £190 billion discounted at 5 per cent. Remarkably, the most aggressive scenario was........

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