Last week I introduced the latest population forecast by the Centre for Population and argued that I agree with most of the assumptions feeding into their predictions.  

This week we will explore what the population forecasts mean for Australia.

We will go beyond the obvious observation of “more people = more housing” to understand the economic and social challenges and opportunities we will be facing. 

Let’s look at the 10-year population forecast.  

Australia is projected to grow by 3.5 million people (or by 13 per cent) in the coming decade.

I argued last week that I disagree with The Centre for Population’s assumption that the fertility rate will increase from 1.42 to 1.62 children per woman by 2032 and then hold steady until 2036.  

I am expecting a slow but steady decline of fertility rates but am willing to settle for a birthrate that stabilises at 1.42.

The projected difference in births over the next decade is remarkable. The centre’s forecasts see 3.31 million births, while the steady-as-she-goes scenario that I think more likely delivers only 2.96 million babies. That’s a difference of 350,000 humans (or 11 per cent).  

Having an opinion about which scenario more closely resembles the future is crucial not just for businesses targeting children (nappies, baby formula, clothing, toys, prams) but also for public spending allocations.

Just how many pre-school teachers must we aim to educate or import from overseas? How many new kindergartens must be built? Such forecasts matter. 

I’m mentally adjusting the chart by imagining the 0-9 aged cohort in 2026 and 2036 to be pretty much the same. 

That’s where my disagreements with the forecasts end.  

The 10-17 cohort is projected to decrease by 61,000 people (2.72 million to 2.65 million – a decline of 2 per cent). That kind of decline might lead to a short-term relief in understaffing issues in schools, but it points to further shortages in the overall workforce in a few decades. 

Before reaching 30, few Australians marry or have children. The cohort of 18-29-year-olds is projected to grow by 10 per cent (4.60 million to 5.06........

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