When Bill Clinton ran against George Bush in 1992, he started from behind. The senior Bush had started the campaign on a high, with his approval polling in the 90s on the back of yet another American war in the Middle East (this one in Kuwait) and Clinton was considered, at least at the beginning, a long shot.

This was back when America was happily divided between conservatives and corporatists and Donald Trump was still partying at Mar-a-Lago with Jeffrey Epstein and making cameos in Home Alone 2.

America had been watching either a Bush or a Clinton run in their elections since 1980 but 1992 was the first (and ultimately only) time they went head to head. In what is now the stuff of legend, political strategist James Carville hung a sign in Clinton’s Little Rock campaign headquarters with three reminders for staff: 1. Change versus more of the same. 2. The economy, stupid. 3. Don’t forget health care.

The campaign successfully reminded Americans of the recession and Clinton waltzed into the White House.

Don’t be surprised if you see Labor start to take notes from 1991-922 into 2027-28. It’s the economy stupid, but it’s also health. And it’s happened, to borrow from Hemingway, in two ways – gradually and then suddenly. We’ve known about it for decades but, because of the economy, it’s going to be an even bigger issue.

It’s not just the economy, stupid. It’s what happens when that economy becomes so unequal the cracks can no longer be covered up.

Economic........

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