For more than two decades, the nations of Southeast Asia have perfected the art of “hedging.” The 11 nations of the region cultivated China as an indispensable economic partner while relying on the United States as their ultimate security guarantor. This balancing act has allowed them to extract dividends from both relationships: Chinese trade and investment for prosperity and the American military presence for stability.

But as US-China competition hardens into a strategic rivalry, that equilibrium is fraying. The space between Washington and Beijing, once wide enough for ASEAN states to maneuver, is narrowing fast. Hedging bets is getting harder, and the consequences of leaning too far to either side are growing sharper.

Beijing’s maritime assertiveness and its use of economic leverage are forcing governments to clarify where they stand. At the same time, Washington presses partners to deepen security cooperation under its Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy.

President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have further complicated matters. The new wave of tariffs on Asian exports, designed to promote US manufacturing and punish Chinese-linked supply chains, risks undermining the export-led growth models and Chinese manufacturing networks on which the regional economy depends.

The result is that Southeast Asian states now face pressure from both sides. China demands political loyalty in exchange for economic access, and the United States expects strategic clarity in exchange for its security assurances. How each country responds depends on geography, domestic politics, and threat perception.

The Philippines has moved decisively toward Washington. Facing daily confrontations with Chinese Coast Guard vessels in the South China Sea,........

© The National Interest