The upcoming US presidential election on November 5, 2024, carries significant implications for the entire world, including Bangladesh’s political landscape. With the recent ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her fleeing the country thus taking refuge in India, Bangladesh stands at a political crossroads, facing unprecedented geopolitical pressures. An intriguing aspect of this shift is the waning interest of foreign lobbyists in Washington, particularly in favor of Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, a close ally of the Democratic Party in the United States, including the Clinton family and George Soros. However, with the personal influence of Dr. Yunus, and the absence of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami support for incumbent government, Bangladesh is facing a power vacuum in the US Capitol. As a result, the political dynamics between Bangladesh and the United States are entering an uncertain phase where international influence and internal political control are in flux.

In the midst of these geopolitical shifts, India’s role in Bangladesh’s future leadership cannot be ignored. Rumors have surfaced that India may facilitate Sheikh Hasina’s political asylum in a third country, distancing her from the political limelight. However, such assumptions, which suggest that India aims to exile Hasina for better bilateral relations with Bangladesh, are misleading. In reality, India has a vested interest in keeping Hasina in a position of influence, albeit from behind the scenes.

India’s strategic game revolves around ensuring Hasina remains a key player, but not necessarily within India. By removing her physically from the country, India seeks to control her role and use her as leverage to maintain influence over Bangladesh’s political apparatus. Some argue that India would prefer to have Hasina operating from abroad, making her a more malleable figure for Indian interests. Once Hasina is outside India, Hindutva lobbyists in Washington will likely increase their efforts to secure India’s influence in Bangladesh, particularly if the Democratic Party remains in power. India’s objective is not to distance itself from Hasina but to ensure that her political network remains intact, allowing India to manipulate the situation in its favor.

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