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Geopolitics’ Inflection Point (Part 2)

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08.10.2026

The term “shot across the bow” is derived from the naval practice of firing a cannon shot ahead of an adversary’s ship to force it to stop, change course or submit itself to the firing ship’s diktat. It is a proactive coercive measure. This term has been borrowed for use in nuclear strategy, where it refers to a deliberate, low-casualty, low-yield or non-lethal use of a nuclear weapon. It demonstrates political resolve, will and the requisite capacities, capabilities and competencies to deter further aggression, without triggering an all-out nuclear exchange/war. However, it also reflects a willingness to go right up the escalation ladder to full-scale nuclear war if an adversary refuses to yield. This may generally apply to cases where both belligerents are nuclear powers. However, if the aggressor is the only nuclear power in the conflict, the core objectives become distinct: one, restore deterrence. Shock the adversary into halting its conventional or strategic aggression by demonstrating the political and military will to cross nuclear thresholds; two, escalation control. To signal that the nation does not seek a full nuclear exchange but will not back down either; three, communication. Send an unambiguous message of unrelenting political resolve and will when all other options, moral, diplomatic, economic and conventional military, have failed. However, where the immediate capitulation of a resolute, unyielding belligerent is required, it may be used against it even though it may not possess nuclear weapons. The nuclear strikes on Hiroshima........

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