2025 was the year in which great power competition in the Pacific moved from abstraction to open contest. China began the year by unveiling two prototypes of sixth-generation aircraft while comparable US efforts remained on design boards, ringing the opening bell of a rivalry that has since defined the year. What followed was an uneven but persistent back-and-forth, as China’s ascendancy gathered pace while the United States struggled to contain a rise that now appears structural rather than cyclical.

In the military domain, China showcased a suite of new capabilities, from hypersonic missiles to next-generation aircraft carriers. By contrast, Washington cancelled its Constellation-class frigates and shelved its sixth-generation naval aircraft programme, decisions that quietly acknowledged growing constraints within the US........

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