Mitch Shin
“Two-thirds of South Korea’s strategic elites do not favor nuclearization of South Korea,” Victor Cha, a senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, said in his latest report published by CSIS in April.
The report came out after South Korean domestic polls showed that the majority of South Koreans support the idea of the country developing its own nuclear weapons as a means to deter North Korea’s preemptive nuclear strikes. Possibly, it could be what Washington elites have wanted to see due to the South Korean public’s growing support for the idea, which Washington has opposed for decades since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
Since North Korea demonstrated its capabilities to develop advanced nuclear weapons and to conduct nuclear tests, voices consistently boiled over toward the South Korean government to develop its own nuclear weapons. Especially, in the wake of the collapse of U.S.-North Korea nuclear talks and inter-Korean dialogues, South Koreans support the idea of the country having nuclear weapons from a security perspective.
Ironically, unlike the deep-seated objection of Washington elites and policymakers over this idea, one of the figures who could influence former President Donald Trump’s policy on North Korea (if he is re-elected in November) delivered a quite worrisome policy suggestion through his exclusive interview with the South’s Yonhap News Agency.
Elbridge A. Colby, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development, said it is unrealistic to expect North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to give up his nuclear weapons, meaning the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is an unrealistic goal.
He also said the U.S. policy on North Korea should be centered on arms control to limit the range of North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles — which are believed to be able to target the mainland of the U.S. It is not a welcoming remark for those in Seoul who still believe that the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula can happen depending on the willingness of the U.S. to resolve the security conflicts on the peninsula.
Delivering a contrasting idea of what the Joe Biden administration officials delivered, he also stressed the necessity of shifting the focus of the U.S. forces stationed in South Korea from North Korea to China.
Although he clearly drew the line that he is not part of Trump’s campaign team so as to prevent readers from misreading his comments as the official stance of Trump on North Korea, his remarks should be noted as the latest poll published by The New York Times on May 13, which shows that Trump is leading in the swing states: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada. This means that Trump’s victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election is not an absurd notion anymore (although he is appearing in trials as the first prosecuted U.S. president in history).
If Trump assumes the presidency again, dramatic changes in the second Trump administration’s policy on North Korea may unfold, considering his latest remarks that South Korea should pay more for the presence of U.S. forces in South Korea.
For those who support the South having nuclear weapons, such views from Trump and his potential aide could be welcoming, as their stance ultimately supports Seoul pursuing nuclear weapons for its own defense. However, South Korea losing its position as a middle-power country whose voice can influence international agendas through its growing soft power by developing nuclear weapons is a nightmare. Such an action will destabilize the Korean Peninsula even further which would be a justifiable excuse for Pyongyang to boost its nuclear and missile development.
South Korea has the power to diplomatically resolve the security conflicts with North Korea. Rather than pursuing the easiest path for its defense, it should consistently work with its neighboring countries to pressure North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons so that the Koreas can construct permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula for future generations.
Mitch Shin is an assistant editor at The Diplomat. Shin was a nonresident Korea Foundation fellow at Pacific Forum and a nonresident research fellow at Institute for Security & Development Policy, Stockholm Korea Center.
Powerful diplomacy trumps nuclear weapons for South Korea
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19.05.2024
Mitch Shin
“Two-thirds of South Korea’s strategic elites do not favor nuclearization of South Korea,” Victor Cha, a senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, said in his latest report published by CSIS in April.
The report came out after South Korean domestic polls showed that the majority of South Koreans support the idea of the country developing its own nuclear weapons as a means to deter North Korea’s preemptive nuclear strikes. Possibly, it could be what Washington elites have wanted to see due to the South Korean public’s growing support for the idea, which Washington has opposed for decades since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
Since North Korea demonstrated its capabilities to develop advanced nuclear weapons and to conduct nuclear tests, voices consistently boiled over toward the South Korean government to develop its own nuclear weapons. Especially, in the wake of the collapse of U.S.-North Korea nuclear talks and inter-Korean dialogues, South Koreans support the idea of the country having........
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