Politics is inching its way back to business after the summer break. The Cabinet had its first meeting in a month, even if the agenda was less than jammers. Ministers are back at their desks, although Leinster House will remain quiet for another week and a half before the Dáil returns.

The European presidency is in full swing again, with meetings of EU ministers in Druids Glen on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in Dublin on Thursday and Friday. The think-ins have begun, with the Labour Party gathering in Galway on Thursday and Friday, an event graced by no less celestial a presence than Michael D himself. Fianna Fáil is in Tullamore next Monday; Sinn Féin in Malahide on Wednesday; Fine Gael in Gorey on Thursday; the Greens in Dublin on Friday. So, so much to look forward to.

Soon, those of us who watch politics closely will be buried in the day-to-day and the week-to-week ups and downs. But often the ebb and flow, the who’s up, who’s down of those episodes proves to be ephemeral, leaving little lasting impact or legacy. Big changes in politics tend to be the result of big forces. So it’s timely, perhaps, for some bird’s-eye-view consideration of the state of Irish politics and the disposition of its forces.

There are essentially four basic camps in Irish politics. How they conduct themselves internally, how they interact with each other externally and how they navigate the broader social, economic and political currents of the age will determine the future shape of........

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