I have no idea who is going to win this election. Neither does anyone else, really. As I mentioned a few weeks back in these pages, I do believe Donald Trump is peaking at the right time, and that the momentum is on his side. But a lot of that depends on whether pollsters have remedied their traditional underpolling of Trump from 2016 and 2020. I suppose it also depends on whether, as a minority candidate, Kamala Harris is under-polling, similar to Barack Obama in 2012.

But I do know that one of them is going to lose. And when that happens, I think I will know why, and the reasons will be much simpler than most people realize.

If Harris loses, it won’t be because of her epic-flip flopping on things like gun confiscation or fracking. Undecided voters are undecided for a reason: They didn’t pay attention before, and they hardly pay attention now, so any flip-flop argument is completely lost on them.

It also won’t be because of the undemocratic manner in which she came to her party’s nomination. No one seriously believes Nancy Pelosi’s attempted Jedi mind trick about how Democrats “had an open primary.” But primaries are private events anyway. The parties are fully within their rights to pick their candidates any way they like — even through a bloodless party coup. There’s a reason primary turnouts are so much........

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