Iran seeks to wait Trump out as ceasefire deadline nears 

Preparations are being made in Islamabad for a high-stakes meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials to extend a ceasefire, and avoid returning to open conflict.

Iranian officials have not yet publicly committed to appearing in Islamabad, where the White House says Vice President Vance will arrive Wednesday for talks. He’s expected to be joined by the president’s special envoy for peace missions Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, providing support.  

“I sent my A-Team,” President Trump said in a short interview with PBS. 

Trump is rejecting an extension of a ceasefire, which expires on April 22, and calling for Iran to sign a deal with the U.S. blocking its pathway to a nuclear weapon or risk “lots of bombs” going off.

Iranian officials have been sending mixed signals over the talks, though Iran watchers in the U.S. say that may be more a question of tactics than representing a divergence of goals.

“Factionalism has been something perennial in the Iranian political system,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington D.C.-based thinktank. 

“Some of them respond to pressure differently, these are folks with different tactics trying to achieve the same goal… the survival of the Islamic Republic.”

Iran is nominally under the leadership of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the previous Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening day of the U.S. and Israeli strikes. But the younger Khamenei has not yet been seen in public amid rumors that he was badly wounded, and has only communicated through written statements. 

Iran’s top negotiators are the Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Trump on Monday implored Iran’s leading officials to come to a deal. 

“And if Iran’s new leaders (Regime Change!) are smart, Iran can have a great and prosperous future!” he wrote on his social media site TruthSocial. 

Strait of Hormuz takes central role

Iran has found leverage with the U.S. in the Strait of Hormuz, which it has closed throughout the war, leading to skyrocketing oil prices.

That has imposed pain on Americans at the pump ahead of midterm elections where GOP majorities in the House and Senate are on the line.

Trump and Iran have been in a social media battle to one-up one another over who has the advantage at the negotiating table.

Alex Vatanka, senior fellow and the founding director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, said Trump risked losing at the bargaining table by seeking to publicly humiliate Iranian leaders.

“It really doesn’t help it, and President Trump misunderstands, I think, fundamentally, the Iranian regime,” he said.

“He should walk into that room with a big stick,” he said. “He should just not do it so publicly, because he gets more out of the Iranian side quietly than he does by taunting them in public.”

‘Islamic Republic 3.0’

Michael Hanna, U.S. program director at the International Crisis Group, said it would be a “mistake” to read too deeply into any Iranian divisions.

“The regime didn’t fall and shows no signs of internal instability despite really intense bombing and US-Israeli military action,” he said, explaining that the chain of command between the diplomatic announcements and military actions remains intact. 

“And by all accounts, it’s very possible that this is a more hardline regime than the one that preceded it prior to the war, and of course the war itself, as wars often are, could very well be radicalizing.”

Danny Citrinowicz, senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is taking the lead on drawing a harder-line in any talks with the U.S.

“Welcome to the Islamic Republic of Iran 3.0,” he posted on X. 

“…through the lens of the Revolutionary Guards, there will be no room for pragmatic politicians to push Iran’s leadership toward compromise, especially after what they perceive as strategic gains against the U.S. and Israel.” 

But Fred Fleitz, former chief of staff of the National Security Council under Trump’s first term, said the Iranian government is showing strain. 

“I think there are divisions within and they’re arguing with themselves,” he said. 

Vatanka said any noise surrounding division in Iran is “a misunderstanding of how Iranian power politics is set up,” and that it all comes down to trust and whether the Iranians believe that the U.S. is “serious about diplomacy.”

“Right now, the Iranians don’t even know if the Americans are just trying to get them on a plane to shoot them down, and if you are Iran, you have reason to think like that because the U.S. attacked them twice over the course of diplomatic talks,” he said.

“That’s a reflection of lack of trust in the United States, then reflecting schism inside the regime,” he added.

Trump said the bottom line for negotiators is “no nuclear weapons,” in his call with PBS. 

Iran maintains it is not seeking a nuclear weapon but that it has a national right to enrich uranium – the fuel needed for a weapon. It also has worked to keep its ballistic missile program and support for proxies out of negotiations with the U.S. 

Vatanka said there are different outcomes that could happen if the ceasefire deadline passes with no deal: nothing could happen and the ceasefire continues; the U.S. could engage in a “limited set of action” with Iran retaliating; or a worst-case scenario with heavy bombing by the U.s.

“Hopefully it won’t come to that,” he said.  “At the worst, maybe we can hope for limited strikes again, back and forth.”

Fleitz said that if the U.S. and Iran return to conflict, Tehran may feel it can hold out until the political pressure builds up too much on Trump. 

“This Iranian government is looking very closely on the forthcoming midterm elections, and they really believe, based on what they’re hearing in the mainstream media and from politicians that disagree with President Trump, that they could wait him out.”

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