The left considers prosecuting Donald Trump a guarantee that he will never be president again, while the MAGA faithful think the former commander in chief could ride a pity vote back into office.

Which side is right? It turns out, neither.

Trump’s legal problems are not helping him. His rise in the polls against President Biden is a result of a collection of problems besetting Biden — and problems that are getting worse. Inflation, immigration, the Israel-Hamas war (and Biden’s inability to deal with these issues) are boosting Trump and weighing down the incumbent.

For Trump, the fact is a guilty verdict in criminal court will hurt his chances, not help. The good news is that his legal troubles are not at the top of voters’ minds. He may lose in court, but policy failure by Biden could still put Trump back in the White House. Politico may be surprised, but the polling data has told this tale for some time.

The trials of Trump: What the numbers say

Though a cloud of uncertainty has followed Trump since he left office, the legal fireworks started with the indictment presented by Alvin Bragg on April 4, 2023. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, Trump and Biden were essentially tied at that time: 43.5 percent for Biden, 43.4 percent for Trump. One month after the indictments, the race had barely moved, with Trump improving less than 1 percent to 44.3 percent and Biden edging up to 43.8 percent.

Special Prosecutor Jack Smith indicted Trump on June 8 in the classified documents case, which also barely moved the needle. Trump averaged 44.6 percent on the eve of that indictment, falling back slightly a month later to 44 percent. In August, the second Smith indictment was handed down along with the Georgia indictment. Again, the ballot test against Biden barely moved.

Overall, Trump went from........

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