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Echoes of 1968: What can we learn about Harris-Trump from Humphrey-Nixon? 

8 1
26.07.2024

An unpopular president finds his path to reelection untenable. Forced out, he hands the reins over to a vice president whose previous try at the party nomination ended in defeat. His polarizing opponent looks to ride a wave of national discontent and end a brutal war, but won’t tell anyone what that plan is.

This scenario describes both the elections in 1968 and 2024. Add to it the presence of a Robert Kennedy and significant third-party support and the similarities are downright eerie. More than that, however, 1968 provides both hope and warnings to Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

The perilous path for Harris

Just like Lyndon Johnson’s VP, Hubert Humphrey, Harris has proven to be a maladroit politician on the national stage. Also, like Humphrey, Harris is saddled with a Biden administration that is unpopular, losing on the major issues and has lost its credibility. Despite her own limited culpability in the failures of Team Biden, there is no evidence she opposed any of the president's policies. But it hardly matters. VPs are always stuck with the blame for what their bosses have done.

Both Presidents Johnson and Biden were undone by the prospects of defeat. Johnson had sunk to an abysmal 36 percent approval rating on the eve of his withdrawal. The YouGov benchmark polled immediately prior to Biden’s withdrawal scored him at just 38 percent approval days before he quit. While there is no archival polling on vice presidents, it is reasonable to assume Humphrey would track Johnson like Harris has tracked Biden. In that regard, Harris sits at 39 percent approve in the last YouGov poll.

Johnson had Vietnam as his albatross; Biden has inflation and immigration. He scores........

© The Hill


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