Indictments, convictions, rants, gaffes and the imminent death of democracy (according to some) — the 2024 race just keeps on coming. And yet, the polling has barely moved between President Biden and Donald Trump over the past six months. The ballot test has, at best, wobbled.

The race looks frozen, with two sets of hyperpartisans entrenched and a disgusted middle that not only loathes both candidates, it apparently loathes even making a choice at this point.

It is remarkable, given all the events of the past year. But, then again, both Biden and Trump have hardly distinguished themselves. Biden continues to mumble and stumble whenever he has to speak. His administration has no answer for inflation and his executive order on illegal immigration is very little and very late. Biden’s State of the Union was a dud, his humanitarian pier sank and both the Israelis and Hamas ignore him with impunity.

As for Trump, all that has happened with him is a 34-count criminal conviction, two major civil suit losses, regular rants on Truth Social and an all-you-can-eat buffet of promises to anyone he thinks he can buy off (to be fair, Biden is giving away as many freebies as he can, regardless of legality).

Stuck in the ballot test

In both the RealClearPolitics rolling average and the 538 rolling average, the race has barely moved over the past several months — and only a bit more in the past year. The RCP national average had Trump leading by 1.2 points on June 13, 2023. As of the writing of this analysis, Trump leads by less than 1 percent. The 538 averages, which considers........

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