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Can Biden recover from the debate? Don’t bet on it. 

8 8
02.07.2024

President Biden’s disastrous debate performance last week is not news, regardless of the furious pushback from his deluded loyalists. And fact-checking Donald Trump’s golf handicap won’t fix this mess.

The more one analyzes the road ahead, the more obvious it is that a continued Biden candidacy is a kamikaze mission sure to wreck the Democratic Party. If logic prevails, Biden would be out within the week. But Team Biden has shown anything but logic in the past six weeks.

No path forward

Only a complete meltdown by Trump saves Biden — and that’s if Biden doesn’t have a new meltdown of his own, which is a far better bet. It is possible Biden doesn’t drop much in the polls, but that will only engender false hope.

Given how polarized American politics is, the floor for any Democrat in a competitive race may be as high as 45 percent, although it is probably a touch lower. The mutual enmity between the parties gives the Republicans and Trump likely about the same number.

Looking at RealClearPolitics, when you average the June polls that do not include “lean Biden/Trump” voters (i.e., voters who initially say they are undecided), Biden was at 43.5 percent vs. 45.1 percent for Trump on the day of the debate. The approval ratings for each were Biden at 39.7 percent approve and Trump at 42.6 percent. Biden was running 3.8 percent above his approval and Trump 2.5 percent.

That means both candidates are propped by a combination of voters who are neutral or don’t like them but loathe the other more.

It is improbable the debate made Trump more likable to reluctant Trump voters, but it certainly did not push those voters to Biden. Already behind, the president needs to target both undecideds and reluctant Trump voters. With those reluctant voters likely consolidating with Trump, Biden loses a vital target.

If Trump consolidates his current vote and adds a mere 1 percent from undecideds, he edges over 46 percent. If Robert Kennedy, Jill........

© The Hill


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