This year’s State of the Union address was followed by an aggressive pro-Biden PR campaign, an avalanche of spin and opinion about its brilliance and how it put Donald Trump and the Republicans on the back foot. Polling over the next few weeks showed a tightening race, with a few polls putting President Biden ahead.

But that all looks like a mirage. Despite attempts to paint it otherwise, Biden is losing to Trump. He is behind (if slightly) in the national polls and continues to lag in enough state polls to hand the election to Trump. And it doesn’t look like the Democrats have a real plan to get out of their polling mess.

Biden’s got that sinking feeling

For President Biden and the Democrats, the numbers are ugly. Biden continues to trail Trump in favorability. His RealClearPolitics average is stuck around minus 15 points, 4 points worse than Trump. The Right Track/Wrong Direction deficit is nearly 40 points. Democrats are stuck "celebrating" an approval percentage of 43 percent.

While the national ballot test is close, Biden is lagging in battleground states. He continues his losing streaks in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan, not having a positive margin since last year. While Biden narrowed the margin in several states in the wake of the State of the Union address, those numbers are looking like either a temporary bump or just a margin of error wobble.

Recent polls put Trump ahead by 6 points in Michigan, 6 points in Arizona and 6 points in Georgia, all above the RCP average. As importantly, Biden keeps losing. Although the RCP averages have dropped from a high in December, they are still negative for the incumbent president. The consistency must be concerning, as that indicates more voters settled........

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