Trump’s escalating attacks on Iran pose risks at home

▪ Platner drops Senate candidacy

▪ Trump’s promises at NATO summit

▪ Kentucky governor requests McConnell update

▪ ObamaCare hikes give fuel to Democrats

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The latest rounds of U.S. attacks on Iran are sending President Trump back into perilous territory four months out from the midterms.

Trump ordered strikes on two consecutive days against Iran after it struck multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz, throwing the future of a fragile ceasefire into serious doubt. He signaled early Wednesday that he was ready to walk away from the talks entirely, calling them a “waste of time” and referring to Iran as “liars.”

The breakdown puts Trump back in a familiar position, threatening to “finish the job” against Iran but facing enormous economic, political and military risks if he returns to a full-blown war.

“I got to know them, and I’m not sure I want to make a deal with them. We can play games, but I’m not sure I want to make a deal. Let’s just finish the job,” Trump said at a press conference Wednesday before leaving the NATO summit in Turkey.

“I think anything that happens is going to be over very quickly,” he added.

Trump said the U.S. could inflict maximum pain on Iran by going after bridges, electric infrastructure and water desalination plants, as well as seizing Kharg Island, a key hub of its oil export industry.

However, any major operations would further deplete already dwindling weapons stockpiles, put a target on America’s Gulf allies and roil global energy markets — thrusting Trump back into a similar position to where he was in the spring.

“The war started off unpopular, and that hasn’t really changed,” said Alex Rossell Hayes, the lead data scientist for YouGov. “It’s continued to be pretty substantially unpopular.”

Peace talks were already on hold this week as Iran holds funeral ceremonies for its assassinated former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Continued tensions over who controls the Strait of Hormuz led to the tit-for-tat strikes over the past 36 hours, with the U.S. focusing its strikes on Iran’s coast and Iran responding with strikes on U.S. military targets in the Gulf.

The apparent end to the ceasefire has already sent oil prices back up and could cause them to spike even more in the coming days, The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports. Experts told her the price of crude oil is still well below its wartime peak as traders are waiting to see what happens next.

Kenneth Medlock, a fellow in energy and resource economics at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told Frazin the strikes are “very targeted” and not currently attacking civilian or energy infrastructure.

“Now, if the Iranian response is to radically escalate, and then the U.S. also radically escalates by expanding strikes beyond just that type of infrastructure, that’s when traffic could shut down and price could go way up,” he said.

Oil and gas prices have been considerably lower in recent weeks with the ceasefire in place, but a prolonged closure of the strait could spell trouble for Republicans.

Democrats have been politically riding high since the war started, growing their lead in the generic congressional ballot to as high as nearly 8 points in the Decision Desk HQ polling average. The growing margin coincided with the cost of regular gas reaching $4.50 per gallon, the highest level in a few years, according to AAA.

Hayes said the economic impact of the war has been the key link between how the conflict has been playing out and how people are feeling about Trump. In the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll taken shortly after the memorandum of understanding was reached, 52 percent of respondents said the war has not been worth it.

At the same time, nearly two thirds said they didn’t think the agreement was likely to lead to a lasting peace between the U.S. and Iran.

Pollsters also found nearly 70 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and rising prices, including a majority who strongly disapprove.

As gas prices have generally been falling for the past few weeks, Democrats have seen a slight narrowing in their generic ballot lead. Where that number stands heading into the midterms may depend largely on Trump’s next moves in Iran.

“It’s all very dependent on how it would affect the economy, because we know from polling that very few voters are really pushed by foreign policy, but voters are very strongly pushed by the state of the economy,” Hayes said.

▪ The Hill: Renewed war threatens to derail congressional agenda.

▪ The Hill: The Memo: Trump’s tough talk raises big question.

Smart Take with Blake Burman

The U.S. and Iran are now back to trading strikes in the Middle East. Trump said on the global stage at Wednesday’s NATO summit in Turkey he thinks the ceasefire is “over.” I asked Mark Esper, the former Defense secretary in Trump’s first administration, where he thinks things stand.

“I don’t think the MOU is dead, and it’s hard to say that the ceasefire was ever really alive. There were so many skirmishes over the past few weeks, and I always started to describe it as really a suspension of major........

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