The stakes for escalation in Ukraine have been raised. The Biden administration has given the go-ahead for long-range missiles to be deployed for use in Russian territory.

A familiar pattern seems to have emerged regarding the war in Ukraine. President Biden has finally relented; after much discussion with the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the new head of NATO, the U.S. will permit the use of long-range American missiles in Russia.

Note the following sequence of events: For months Biden refused a weapons request from Ukraine, allegedly concerned it would lead to an escalation with Russia. Kyiv complains loudly to no avail. Yet, just when the deal seems dead, the Biden administration suddenly approves the request.

This sequence of events has played out before, and repeatedly. Ukraine has previously requested HIMARS, Abrams tanks and F16s — and in each case, the pattern of response was the same: first a refusal followed by prevarication, and then suddenly “permission granted,” approximately at the moment when deliveries won't make a difference in the outcome.

Will the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, make a difference if it hits targets deep inside Russia?

There is a simple answer here. Moreover, this fact may explain the Biden administration's reluctance to respond to previous requests.

One factor is certainly relevant, Ukraine has only a limited number of ATACMS that it can get access to. Given their high cost ($1 million-$1.5 million per missile), Ukraine is expected to deploy ATACMS sparingly, focusing on operations targeting high-value objectives.

As a consequence, Kyiv’s well-circumscribed........

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