Pakistan aims to thread the needle to Middle East peace

Much attention has been given to Iran, but the conflict’s ramifications range far beyond that nation’s boundaries and even just the Persian Gulf.

Iran’s eastern neighbor, Pakistan, might be leading the pack as the country whose complications run the deepest.  

Sharing nearly 600 miles of border with Iran, Pakistan is one of the many countries deeply dependent on imported hydrocarbons who are watching prices rise rapidly. Approximately 40 million Pakistani citizens are Shiites, like most Iranians. Islamabad has a new defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, which has come under attack from Iran. Pakistan faces serious issues with domestic terrorism, which led to recent cross-border violence with Afghanistan. It is also once again teetering on the edge of financial disaster and only recently avoided a massive war with its archrival, India.  

In short, Pakistan is a nuclear-armed nation whose stability is being challenged on multiple fronts. The Iran war has exacerbated many of these conditions.

The Pakistan-Saudi defense treaty, signed in September, is already being questioned. While military cooperation between the two nations goes back to the 1960s, this treaty strengthened the ties. It states that “aggression against either country shall be considered aggression against both.” The treaty came on the heels of Israel’s unsuccessful attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar, which rattled the Gulf states and pushed the Saudis to formalize military cooperation with Pakistan.

Cooperation between the two countries is extensive. There are nearly 3 million Pakistanis working in Saudi Arabia, sending billions home in remittances. That includes approximately 2,000 Pakistani troops providing training and support to the Saudi military. In return, the Saudis provide discounts on oil. Although the treaty provides no nuclear umbrella, many analysts have discussed the possibility of Pakistan helping Saudi Arabia develop a nuclear program.  

The Saudis have been disappointed by the Pakistanis before. In 2015, Pakistan rejected a request from Saudi Arabia for support its military campaign in Yemen. Pakistan used the guise of seeking parliamentary approval, knowing it wouldn’t work, to wiggle out of the request. 

Although Saudi Arabia was likely seeking to add a nuclear deterrent to counter Israel, it is not clear that it thought a formal treaty would entail automatic Pakistani involvement in any military scenario. Saudi Arabia has been attacked by Iran, but as yet it has not responded militarily or truly tested what the treaty means.

Whether the Saudis have requested Pakistani support is also not yet known, but it is safe to say that Pakistan is not keen to get involved. The main reason for that caution is Pakistan’s Shiite population, who number around 15 percent of the population. Protests against the attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel spread around Pakistan at the end of February, with 10 reported fatalities in Karachi after security forces opened fire to scatter crowds.

The last thing a fragile Pakistan needs is serious sectarian violence from this sizable minority, when it already has a major threat to stability from the Pakistani Taliban. This long-standing terrorism problem has worsened since the Taliban have retaken control of neighboring Afghanistan. Pakistan is convinced that the Afghan Taliban is supporting their Pakistani brethren, despite their denials. Deeply frustrated with the situation, Pakistan has lashed out with air strikes that have killed dozens. Afghanistan responded with drone attacks and cross-border raids on Pakistan’s military posts. The resulting ceasefire seems fragile and unlikely to last.  

Along the border with Iran, another minority group, the Baloch, complicate the picture for Pakistan even further. Separatist Balochs are fighting a decades-long campaign that straddles the border. Although that might lead to cooperation and solidarity between the two countries, it has often been the opposite, with each side accusing the other of supporting the insurgents and occasionally shelling one another along the border.  

Some have suggested that Pakistan might play a role as mediator in the current conflict, since it is a regional player with much at stake and with relations with both Iran and the U.S.. This is particularly true considering the main mediators previously between the U.S. and Iran — Qatar and Oman — have themselves been hit by Iranian attacks since the war began.  

Pakistan seems to relish such an opportunity, and there are reports that talks to end the war could be held in Islamabad in the coming days. They have been on a charm offensive in D.C. looking to curry favor with President Trump. Field Marshall Asim Munir had a two-hour lunch with Trump in June and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif is on the Gaza Board of Peace and met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month. This has led to recently signed memoranda of understanding outlining cooperation on digital currency and mining for critical minerals.  

As the world watches oil, gas and fertilizer prices skyrocket, wondering when global trade in these critical commodities will resume, the war continues and the fallout cascades, with implications for countries near and far from the violence. Pakistan is one of many places deeply affected, and one that might see its future changed drastically as a result.  

Don Aviv CPP, PSP, PCI, is CEO of Interfor International. Jeremy Hurewitz is head of Interfor Academyand the author of “Sell Like a Spy.”  

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