No dictator lasts for ever. One day Vladimir Putin will be gone. Recent reports suggest growing weakness in the Russian economy, discontent in society and a waning of confidence inside his regime – but it would be foolish to conclude the end is near. Only death or Russia can depose Putin, and nobody knows when or how that will happen. What democracies in Europe and beyond can do is hone a strategy to defeat his external ambitions. Here’s a non-exhaustive list of eight elements of such a strategy.

Have a clear purpose. Putin aims to subjugate Ukraine, restore as much as possible of the Russian empire, destroy the credibility of Nato, undermine the European Union and re-establish a Russian sphere of influence over eastern Europe. To prevent him achieving these goals is to defeat him.

Stay the course with Ukraine. On 11 June, Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine will have lasted longer than the first world war. Ukraine’s achievement in holding off a much larger adversary is astonishing. Given the drone-enabled kill zone at the frontline, this war is most unlikely to be decided at the front, but both sides are pummelling each other’s rear, hitting energy infrastructure, the economy and morale. The withdrawal of US support by President Donald Trump has made the defence of Ukraine more difficult, but not crippled it. The fall of Viktor Orbán in Hungary has unblocked €90bn of European economic support, which should see the Ukrainian budget through to the end of 2027. Many trajectories are possible but the most likely is that this war grinds on for some time.

Yet it won’t be over even when it’s over. Unlike on VE Day 1945, we won’t know who has won at the moment the shooting stops. The arrival of “peace” – most likely in the form of a ceasefire that becomes a longer-lasting freezing of hostilities........

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