Five weeks. We are now five weeks in and entering the sixth week of the war on Iran. What was supposed to be a “precise, overwhelming military campaign” to eliminate “an imminent nuclear threat” and urge the Iranian people to “take over” their government is now anything but precise or overwhelming. Gulf countries are seized up with retaliatory Iranian attacks, the strait of Hormuz is shut, and there is no sign of regime collapse either through military degradation or popular takeover. The recovery of two downed US aircrew is celebrated beyond the facts of the matter because nothing else is going to plan. The mistake, as ever, is a combination of hubris and ignorance, flaws made even more serious by the particularities of the Iranian regime.

There is a mental lag at the start of wars. A cognitive delay that means you can’t quite adjust to the fact that dangerous conflict cannot be swiftly contained. That mental lag is even longer when the United States is involved. Because it remains inconceivable to some that a superior military power would not swiftly achieve its objectives. That an inferior power would not immediately succumb. That allies would not fall into line and rally behind the US. Inconceivable that the fallout of a military campaign would not be limited to the territories and peoples targeted.

None of the predicted scenarios have come about. The conflict is rattling energy markets. There are already forecasts of a “rare global economic recession” in the case of prolonged war. Donald Trump has failed to recruit European and Gulf allies to take part in the offensive or in the effort to reopen the strait of Hormuz. And the Iranian regime remains unvanquished, inflicting rising costs in US military equipment and personnel.

These are all........

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