There is a point past which weakness becomes its own form of security, and that is the paradoxical position in which Rishi Sunak now finds himself. Even in the wake of last week’s disastrous byelections, his leadership seems secure, for the simple reason that nobody vying for the crown wants to seize it this side of the general election.

Security isn’t strength, of course. An already divided party is likely to grow only more mutinous over the following weeks and months, each faction peddling its own remedy for the dire state of Tory polling.

These battles are not unimportant. While it is hard to find anyone now who thinks the next election is winnable for the Tories, closing the gap by even a few percentage points could make the difference between an extinction event and a merely miserable result.

And under our electoral system, where individual seats can be won or lost by tiny margins, a carefully targeted campaign could save seats that might otherwise be lost – if CCHQ is willing and able to dig the political trenches in the right places.

But digging those trenches is a fraught business, because once you do, all those MPs who find their constituencies in no man’s land will notice. (No wonder we might see more than 100 Tories stand down from parliament before the election.)

A good defence relies on........

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