By N Chandra Mohan

Despite weaker-than-expected nominal growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and depreciation of the rupee, there is no let-up in aspirational objectives of pegging the size of the Indian economy in US dollar-denominated terms. As the fifth-largest economy in the world, the narrative is that India is set to soon become the third-largest economy with a projected GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030 and $30 trillion in 2047. However, becoming the fourth-largest economy by overtaking Japan has not happened as yet. India’s nominal GDP in April-September 2025 is $1.98 trillion as against Japan’s $2.13 trillion. This is due to the sharp decline of the rupee against the US currency unit that reduces the size of India’s dollar-denominated GDP.

While the latest GDP numbers indicate that the Indian economy is perhaps on track to hit $4 trillion this fiscal, they also strongly suggest that larger aspirational hopes may take a tad longer to be fulfilled. Look no further than the still-to-be-fulfilled ambition to become a $5-trillion economy, a hope that still burns bright among the ruling dispensation’s policymakers. This goal was first articulated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his........

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