As NATO’s leaders and their teams mix in the corridors and cocktail parties surrounding their 75th anniversary summit in Washington, DC. this week, their apprehension is palpable.

But it is not the prospect of further aggression by Vladimir Putin that is dominating their public and not-so-public expressions of concern—even though he is never far from their thoughts. It is not their inability to resolve internal debates over how much license they should give Ukraine’s military to use NATO contributed weapons to strike deep within Russia—even though it is clear such license is as essential as it is elusive.

It is not the fact that one of the heads of a NATO member state, Viktor Orbán, spent the last few days hobnobbing with Putin and later with Xi Jingping that has them ill at ease—although Orbán is a wildcard who could upset many of the plans of the consensus-driven alliance.

No, the NATO leaders are obsessed with the same political drama that has dominated media attention here in the United States for the past two weeks. Yet what they fear may not be what you might assume.

They are watching the movements and statements of Joe Biden like hawks. They are looking everywhere for clues about his future candidacy for the White House. They are seeking the kind of intelligence that comes from pumping seatmates at formal and informal meals for information, gossip and opinions.

Yet, those summit participants and observers with whom I have spoken—even those who have noticed a marked decline in the U.S. president over the past four years—are not concerned with Biden’s ability to play a leading role in NATO during his second term. Not only do they........

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