Within 24 hours, two Israeli strikes occurred on targets that could not be more different. Both however, have the possibility of dramatically altering the course and consequence of the wars Israel is currently fighting.

The first strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, on Monday, killed as many as 13 people—including Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Israel was quick to argue that the attack was not on an official Iranian diplomatic facility but, rather, on a “military building of the Quds forces disguised as a civilian building in Damascus.”

The strike on the building was justified by Israeli officials, who told Reuters that those targeted had “been behind many attacks on Israeli and American assets and had plans for future attacks.” Iran immediately condemned the strike and Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promised to retaliate. Whether that retaliation results in a major escalation of Israel’s conflicts in the region is the question that loomed large in the wake of the aerial bombardment.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged that “all concerned” should “exercise utmost restraint and avoid further escalation.” Former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas, writing in Ha’aretz, said that while Israel has thus far been conducting a “covert ‘shadow war’” against Iran, “the attack on an annex building of the Iranian consulate hosting Quds Force commanders in charge of operations in Syria and Lebanon was a direct and explicit hit on Iran.”

Pinkas, echoing concerns expressed by Guterres and other experts, raised the possibility that this could be seen as a “reckless act of premeditated escalation that could not only lead to an expansion of the (Gaza) war, but also involve the United States, (depending on Iran’s scale and timing of retaliation).” The U.S. said after the attack that it had no involvement in it, and was not consulted beforehand.

U.S. and other international officials have long been concerned by Iranian regional provocations that seemed designed to trigger an escalation of the........

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