The U.S. looks set to have its first-ever Cuban American secretary of state in 2025, after President-elect Donald Trump nominated U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida for the role. But don’t expect that to mean cozier relations between Havana and Washington.

Rubio, who if confirmed by the Senate will also be the first Latino to hold the post, is one of the most hawkish members of Congress when it comes to the communist-run island. Indeed, one recent profile of Trump’s pick for top diplomat described Rubio as “Cuba’s worst nightmare.”

So how will Rubio’s antipathy for the communist government in Cuba – alongside Trump’s desire to be seen as a dealmaker – affect U.S.-Cuban ties?

As a historian of U.S.-Cuban relations, I know that ties between the two countries have been fraught for more than 60 years.

After overthrowing U.S.-supported dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959, Fidel Castro nationalized U.S.-owned property and became an ally of the Soviet Union against the United States. He also supported left-wing revolutions in Latin America and Africa,challenging U.S. global interests.

In response, successive U.S. presidents have prohibited trade with Cuba and most travel to the island by U.S. citizens since the 1960s.

There was a brief thaw in relations during the Obama administration.

But Trump reinstated the U.S.’s policy of confrontation with Cuba between 2016 to 2020 – a period marked by a tightened embargo on the island and increased rancor between Washington and Havana.

That may well happen again under Trump’s second administration – but that isn’t certain. There is also the potential for changes in U.S.-Cuban relations. Perhaps, even, there are reasons to believe the dynamic may improve.

No doubt, Trump and Rubio are critics of Havana’s communist government.

Rubio’s family emigrated from Cuba to the U.S. in the 1950s before the triumph of Castro’s........

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