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For months now, analysts and academic observers have warned of how tensions could easily spin out of control in the Middle East and provoke a major war. This came several steps closer this week after a fortnight of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon culminated in the killing on September 28 of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. This was followed two days later by the launch of Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon (which it referred to as a “limited ground operation”).

The airstrike that hit Nasrallah was part of a concerted campaign dubbed “Operation Northern Arrow” by Israel, which is preparing to mark the first anniversary since the October 7 attacks that sparked this conflict. Israel’s strike aimed to decapitate Hezbollah and neutralise as much of its senior command structure as possible.

Writing for The Conversation the day after Nasrallah was killed, Ori Wertman, a research fellow at the University of South Wales (and a former national security adviser to Israeli president Isaac Herzog), looked at the regional ramifications of what would almost certainly be a wider war that could draw in Iran.

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One of the key questions, Wertman writes, has been how Tehran might react to an Israeli campaign against Hezbollah. He believes Iran is unlikely to intervene with troops to help its proxy. This, he believes, could affect Iran’s influence in the region.

This must call into question the advantage of acting as one of the country’s most important proxies in the region. In this context, many in Beirut, Damascus, Sana'a and Gaza are surely asking themselves now what is the advantage of being Iran’s emissaries, if the latter leaves them alone to face Israel.

Read more: Lebanon: the killing of........

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