The US military launched a wave of strikes against targets in central Syria on December 19 in response to an attack on US forces near the ancient city of Palmyra one week earlier. That attack saw a lone Islamic State (IS) gunman kill two US service members and one American civilian at a fortified base in the city.

The perpetrator, whose identity has not yet been released, had recently enlisted in Syria’s internal security forces. He had reportedly already attracted suspicion from local security leadership over his possible extremist sympathies.

The attack has exposed deep vulnerabilities within the Syrian transitional government’s security architecture. It also illustrates how IS has adapted from being a territory-holding “proto-state” into an insurgent movement designed to exploit Syria’s institutional weaknesses.

When the regime of Bashar al-Assad collapsed in late 2024, Syria’s new authorities faced the urgent and daunting task of imposing security across a country strained by institutional collapse and a complex network of competing armed groups. The new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, moved quickly to assemble national security forces.

His government prioritised speed and territorial coverage over comprehensive vetting. Thousands of fighters from diverse former factions were absorbed into new security units in an effort to establish an immediate state........

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