With the war nearly three years old and the Russian economy under severe pressure after a collapse of the ruble and rising inflation, the Kremlin needs to show domestic audiences that it remains strong. Recent rhetoric from the Kremlin and from proxies for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has focused on the country’s valiant stand against an aggressive west as represented by Nato.

According to one poll, six out of ten Russians fear Nato, so being seen to stand firm against the US-led alliance is an easy win for the Kremlin, increasing its legitimacy domestically in public and elite circles.

A recent interview in the popular Russian newspaper, Argumenty i Fakty, with Sergei Karaganov, a Russian political scientist and former Putin adviser, has provided a suitably hawkish take on the likely thrust of Russian negotiations over Ukraine and with Nato. Karaganov called for the “complete capitulation of Ukraine” and for the western alliance to return to its 1997 borders.

A year ago, Karaganov stated that to scare the west to stop supporting Ukraine, Russia must hit a “bunch of targets in a number of countries”. Recent changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine and the firing of the – thus far ineffective – Oreshnik medium-range nuclear-capable missile are further signs of the Kremlin’s efforts to bring........

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