Is Hanson’s rise Albanese’s fall? Not so fast

August 31, 2026 — 5:00am

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A month ago, Anthony Albanese gave a remarkably sanguine admission of the fact that sometimes there is nothing you can do to stop political decline. “I firmly believe that if you govern in the right way, and you get the policies right, then the politics will look after itself,” he told The Saturday Paper. “And if it doesn’t, due to circumstances beyond your control, well, that’s OK.”

Is Labor in political decline? The opinion of pundits right now seems drastically split. On one hand, there is acceptance that Labor is very likely to win the next federal election – because it starts with a huge seat majority and the conservative vote is split between teals, One Nation and the Coalition. At the same time, there is a growing hum of commentary suggesting the government is in trouble, Albanese is unpopular and fighting back could be tough.

Saturday’s result in the byelection for the West Australian state seat of Secret Harbour will amplify that hum. The WA Labor government suffered a huge swing against it, its MP’s primary vote being almost halved. One Nation won decisively.

Albanese would have had a good sense this was coming: context for the fact that last week, visiting the state, he gave a clear indication he is aware that anything might happen between now and the next federal election. That indication came in the form of a clear commitment to continue the ridiculously generous deal WA gets on the GST.

This undermines his first point from last month – that if policies are right, the politics will look........

© The Age