The downturn in India–US relations during Trump’s second presidency exposes deeper structural weaknesses in the partnership, from trade and strategic autonomy to diverging political priorities.

In 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaimed in Washington that India and the United States had ‘ overcome the hesitations of history’. Despite strained relations during the Cold War, India–US ties had subsequently gone from strength to strength.

There was a high degree of bipartisan consensus in Washington on engagement with India. That consensus was mirrored across the political spectrum in New Delhi, though fringe elements of India’s political elite, such as the country’s communist parties, opposed closer US–India ties. Economic imperatives were a catalyst for India’s shift towards closer alignment with the United States, as a foreign exchange crisis in 1991 and the collapse of the Soviet Union prompted India to reorientate their external engagement.

Progress came to a grinding halt in the second Trump administration. There were several pre-existing fault lines in the India–US relationship. Washington harboured concerns about alleged Indian complicity in  assassination plots on Canadian and US soil in 2023 and claims in New Delhi that the US ‘ deep state’ was seeking to undermine India’s government.

In this context, the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025  was welcomed by New Delhi amid expectations of a reset in the India–US relationship. This was rooted in a belief that Trump and Modi maintained similar worldviews as strongman populist leaders that regarded China and radical Islam as existential threats.

Even the introduction of reciprocal tariffs was initially seen as a  blessing in disguise given expectations that it would........

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